{"id":21433,"date":"2023-01-02T18:27:13","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T16:27:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/?p=21433"},"modified":"2023-08-13T11:29:11","modified_gmt":"2023-08-13T09:29:11","slug":"push-and-pull","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/sciencesurf\/2023\/01\/push-and-pull\/","title":{"rendered":"Push and pull?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Having been confronted with the &#8220;pull&#8221; doctrine now many times, I went for further literature. The best summary that I have found is by the <a href=\"https:\/\/euaa.europa.eu\/key-words\/push-and-pull-factors\">European Asylum Support Office 2016<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On the conceptual level, there are serious limitations with the commonly used (yet often critiqued) push and pull framework as an explanatory tool for migration decision-making processes &#8230; it makes strong assumptions about the way individuals respond to stimuli; it presumes that an individual can make cost\/benefit decisions based on full information, in markets tending to a general equilibrium, far from the complex reality of human mobility. As such, the model fails to explain why, for instance, people respond differently to the same \u2018push\u2019 and \u2018pull\u2019 forces, and why emigration and immigration occur simultaneously in the same area.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>There seem to be many more limitations than currently assumed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>factors explaining migration 1) often originate in the household\/community\/country of origin (e.g. unemployment, gender discrimination, conflict), while factors influencing migration 2) are more likely to be destination-specific (e.g. presence of co-ethnic community members, perception of the country as having a permissive asylum regime, language similarities) or process- specific (e.g. a smuggler has chosen a destination).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Another key issue, is the <a href=\"https:\/\/sea-watch.org\/seabird-film\/\">high death toll<\/a> that is of course known to refugees.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Studying migration flows across the Mediterranean, particularly along two routes (the western and central Mediterranean routes), Altai Consulting found that social, political, and economic instability inspired migration flows but that individuals fleeing greater threats to their personal security were willing to traverse more dangerous and uncertain migration routes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So we are dealing with<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Socio-economic factors<\/li>\n<li>Political factors<\/li>\n<li>Demographic factors<\/li>\n<li>Historical, cultural and geographic factors<\/li>\n<li>Environmental factors<\/li>\n<li>Migration policy factors<\/li>\n<li>Economic factors in the asylum destination choice<\/li>\n<li>Summary of convergence\/divergence trends<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The report shows the relevance of migrant networks in facilitating asylum migration movements and influencing migrants\u2019 destination choices. Going back even to an earlier report of migration direction in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1248676\">Science<\/a>, I can&#8217;t find any evidence for any pull effect.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21539\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21539\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54.jpg\" rel=\"key\" data-rel=\"key-image-0\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"key wp-image-21539 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54-620x632.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"632\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54-620x632.jpg 620w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54-490x500.jpg 490w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54-768x783.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-01-13-um-09.26.54.jpg 1056w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21539\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Guy J. Abel and Nikola Sander. Quantifying Global International Migration Flows. Science 2014; 343:6178<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Aug 4, 2023<\/span><\/p>\n<p>There is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-38119-4\">new time series study in Sci Rep<\/a> by Alejandra Rodr\u00edguez S\u00e1nchez aggregating counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration via the Central Mediterranean Route<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_22353\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22353\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55.jpg\" data-rel=\"key-image-1\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"key wp-image-22353 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55-620x299.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55-620x299.jpg 620w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55-1037x500.jpg 1037w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55-768x370.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Bildschirmfoto-2023-08-04-um-07.27.55.jpg 1307w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22353\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-38119-4<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote><p>A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">pushback policies did affect the migration flow,<\/span> but that the search-and-rescue periods <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">did not yield a discernible difference<\/span> between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So there is push but no pull.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"bottom-note\">\n  <span class=\"mod1\">CC-BY-NC Science Surf , accessed 29.04.2026<\/span>\n <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Having been confronted with the &#8220;pull&#8221; doctrine now many times, I went for further literature. The best summary that I have found is by the European Asylum Support Office 2016 On the conceptual level, there are serious limitations with the commonly used (yet often critiqued) push and pull framework as an explanatory tool for migration &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/sciencesurf\/2023\/01\/push-and-pull\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Push and pull?<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[4198,3847,4197],"class_list":["post-21433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-note-worthy","tag-central-mediterranean-route","tag-migration","tag-refugee"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21433"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21433\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22448,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21433\/revisions\/22448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wjst.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}