The epidemic started with a few cases during the winter holidays, increased exponentially afterwards including significant more cases by beer festivals and another significant excess of cases following the election that occurred in Bavaria only. Compared to other German countries, Bavaria reached the highest prevalence which could not be reversed by even the most restrictive containment measurements. To be effective, NPIs need to applied early, if possible even before the beginning of the exponential phase.
When you look back, what was the most momentous mistake in the pandemic response?
Farrar: The biggest mistake was that we didn’t take it seriously enough in the first six weeks of 2020. It was the time when a pandemic could still have been prevented. From the beginning of January, it was clear what was happening in Wuhan. By the end of January, it was clear how dangerous the situation was. And even though this information was available, the rest of the world didn’t act until March – two critical months passed in which the virus was spreading. Instead, we had a U.S. President Donald Trump, who dismissed what was happening as “kung flu,” and in Europe, at least in the UK, there was a sense that this was all happening in faraway China, and northern Italy was also somehow different – it won’t be so bad here. It was a kind of complacency, the arrogance of exceptionalism.