Why the “immunity debt” narrative ultimately collapsed

There was an interesting Bluesky Post with this title

https://bsky.app/profile/nicktsergas.ca/post/3m7h36uha4k2e

I agree. Likewise Drosten said in 2022 that someone who believes that they can train their immune system through an infection should, by the same logic, also believe that “by eating a steak they can train their digestion”. It was as stupid as the hygiene hypothesis.

In reality, post-pandemic seasons returned to historical volatility rather than showing sustained amplification. RSV and influenza displayed timing shifts and one-off rebounds, but no long-term increase in total burden.

Nations with long and strict NPIs (like New Zealand, Taiwan) should have shown the largest “payback.” By 2025 this clearly did not occur. Conversely, countries with minimal restrictions (Sweden, GB) still experienced unusual RSV and influenza patterns, demonstrating the hypothesis being wrong, but taking a huge death toll.

Memory B & T cells persist; mucosal training is complex but not “use-it-or-lose-it.” The hypothesis overestimated the role of routine pathogen turnover and underestimated homeostatic immune regulation.

 

CC-BY-NC Science Surf accessed 08.12.2025 VG Wort note save PDF