By Adrian Gerard Barnett in “Epidemiology”
Some scientists hastily pivoted to epidemiologic modeling, including many with no qualifications or experience. This effort was likely from a desire to help, but it gummed up the scientific machinery with hundreds of new modeling papers needing expert peer review, while the real experts were busy on the models that mattered.
In the future, for such nationally important models, I would like to have two independent groups of official model- ers who would transparently report their results to the gov- ernment and the public. There are lots of uncertainties and scientific decisions that go into these models, and two expert groups coming to the same conclusion would greatly increase confidence for the decision makers…
I would like that also.