The Gangelt Study

11.5.2020 update 3/3

mortality figure Heinsberg / Gangelt

Cumulative number of covid19 death in the district of Heinsberg according to RKI shows a sharp increase of deaths in March (left figure). Cumulative number of all death in Gangelt according to an own analysis of all obituaries from January to April 2020 as reported in the local newspaper for Gangelt (right figure). The thin straight line indicates the 18 year average death count in Gangelt according to official NRW statistics 2000-2018 (with on average of 11 deaths per month). Vertical lines give the examination period of the Gangelt study. Without official data confirming the home address of the case fatalities in Gangelt, the number of deaths obtained by obituaries could have been slightly overestimated here as sometimes the home address is given by the funeral directors office only; on the other hand cases without any obituary would have left to an underestimate. Taken together the right plot shows an excess of 10 deaths on April 4. If we add another death after the observation period, there may be at least 11 deaths instead of 7. All data available on request.

According to official RKI data about 15% of all covid-19 related deaths in the district occurred in Gangelt although only 5% of the population of the Heinsberg district is living there.

The average all cause death in Gangelt doubled in March when compared to years 2000-2018.

Summary: The excess number of deaths in Gangelt by the end of the study is much higher than reported in the manuscript.