Tag Archives: failure

Another example where bad science was leading to a catastrophic event

https://bsky.app/profile/jeroenvanbaar.nl/post/3lcsyzzc24k2f

The full story at this address and the 3 reasond in a nutshell

Clever ecological modelers came up with a way of calculating a ‘maximum sustainable yield’ (MSY), set at 16% of the total population, which should theoretically leave enough fish to repopulate each year … But fishing floundered further and the Grand Banks cod population collapsed almost entirely in 1992 …

While the Canadian government attempted to sample the cod population in the 1980s, their ships caught so much less than professional fishermen … In doing so, the modelers ignored a selection bias: the pros used better tech and only fished in the highest-yielding spots, so these numbers cannot be extrapolated to the entire region…

In humans, the number of kids in a population depends heavily on the number of parents, because one pair of parents usually has just one kid at a time. In cod, on the other hand, a single fish can produce eight million eggs at a time. This means that the number of cod babies who make it to adulthood depends much less on the existing population size and much more on environmental factors like food and predation.

A third problem is that the fishing industry has far-reaching and often unforeseeable effects on the ecosystem as a whole.


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More about the AI winter

towardsdatascience.com

In the deep learning community, it is common to retrospectively blame Minsky and Papert for the onset of the first ‘AI Winter,’ which made neural networks fall out of fashion for over a decade. A typical narrative mentions the ‘XOR Affair,’ a proof that perceptrons were unable to learn even very simple logical functions as evidence of their poor expressive power. Some sources even add a pinch of drama recalling that Rosenblatt and Minsky went to the same school and even alleging that Rosenblatt’s premature death in a boating accident in 1971 was a suicide in the aftermath of the criticism of his work by colleagues.

 


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Journal Hijacking

It’s not easy to monitor science output. This may be particular true when it comes to Journal Hijacking. In brief

The Spanish journal Afinidad has been hijacked. Someone has set up a fake website for the journal and is soliciting submissions and payments from the authors in accordance with the gold open-access model.

With the recent quality of some scholarly journals I feel they may have been highjacked too: typing errors, omission of references, major misunderstandings, logical errors, you name it.


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Bullet points for future allergy research

Maybe this is a difficult task – defining an agenda for future research. Here are some thoughts as we don’t know the reasons for the allergy epidemic even after 100 years of research. And we don’t have any cure yet, there is some relief of symptoms and there are some limited curative efforts but we don’t have any real understanding of what is going on. The following research areas may therefore be identified in NON-therapeutic research: Continue reading Bullet points for future allergy research


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