As an update of my earlier COVID19 paper, I thought about correlating excess COVID19 mortality
with the Oxford stringency index of government response.
just to answer the question: What had been appropriate?
Getting the data is no problem but verifying and selecting the best variables is a nightmare and involves so many a priori decisions that I am basically lost here. And it looks weird just by overlaying both plots.
Der Verlust der Glaubwürdigkeit ist das Schlimmste was einem einzelnen Wissenschaftler aber auch einer Kommission passieren kann. Das passierte der COVID19 Sachverständigenkommission (als Drosten ging und Stöhr kam). Leider passiert das auch bei der Stiko mit Mertens et al.
Leider hat das jetzt fatale Folgen, so die ersten Berichte aus der Praxis. Impfungen werden nun generell schwieriger, nicht nur bei “COVID22” sondern bei ALLEN Impfungen, obwohl deren Nutzen-Risiken-Relation unverändert ist.
https://twitter.com/KinderdocNina/status/1558207802564296707
Lockdown effects can be clearly calculated
But why does the British Hart Group deny all lockdown effects?
Ein sehr schönes Interview im LJ mit Katharina Schüller(Mitautorin der „Unstatistik“), das mit vielen anderen Stimmen [1,2,3,4] mal wieder zeigt, wie schlecht unsere COVID-19 Datenlage in Deutschland ist und dabei auch meine Forderung vom März 2020 nach repräsentativen Daten wiederholt. Was es mit dem Titel auf sich hat? Es ist die Antwort in dem Interview auf die Frage
Macht Ihnen Ihre „Unstatistik“, speziell in Verbindung mit Corona, eigentlich viel Ärger?
A recent Nature study showed Ebola reactivation in a previously infected patient:
The 2021 lineage shows considerably lower divergence than would be expected during sustained human-to-human transmission, which suggests a persistent infection with reduced replication or a period of latency.
The most recent viral genome shared 10 substitutions that evolved during the previous epidemic making it unlikely that there was a new animal spillover event. I always wondered how second & third wave of COVID-19 started in Germany. Was it really a new spread or just a reactivation? A Frontiers review concluded from the existing literature that
our study, consisting more than a total of 113,715 patients, indicates that the RP-SARS-CoV-2 scenario occurs plausibly due to reactivation, reinfection, viral shedding, or testing errors.
So far, there are 240 documented COVID-19 cases of reinfection reported worldwide according to the reinfection tracker. In the case of Ebola there is a known viral persistence in semen while transmission through milk and cervicovaginal fluid is also possible (similar for COVID-19 although neuronal persistence seems to be more relevant). Maybe we need more immunological studies particular in long COVID if there is a continuous or intermittent antigenic stimulation due to persistence of an antigenic reservoir.
The fourth wave in Germany is caused by the delta variant, reactivation of alpha is certainly not a major factor. So we will only know in the next few years if reactivation is responsible for small regional outbreaks in unvaccinated communities.
another interesting find about “Epistemic Trespassing” by N. Ballantine
Epistemic trespassers are thinkers who have competence or expertise to make good judgments in one field, but move to another field where they lack competence—and pass judgment nevertheless. … A few examples …Philosophers are especially wary of intruders on their turf. The evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins has written and lectured on religion. Experts in the philosophy of religion—atheists, agnostics, and theists alike—charge that Dawkins fails to engage with the genuine issues and sets up strawmen as his dialectical opponents. Dawkins appears to overstep his competence as a biologist.
It is quite interesting to see how the proponents of the hygiene hypothesis are reacting to the Covid-19 pandemic, citing only selected BCG and polio studies and are advising (no disinfectant of course :-) but galectin
The fact that trained immunity can be induced raises the prospect of its exploitation to raise the threshold of resistance to COVID-19 infection … Some studies have already shown that communities that still use Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) as a vaccine against tuberculosis may have lesser instances of severe COVID-19 infection than those countries that do not use BCG. This notion has been complemented by advocating the use of BCG to vaccinate persons in an attempt to protect them against COVID-19. A recent letter by HIV pioneer Bob Gallo advocated using oral polio vaccine for a similar effect. We consider that administration of galectin molecules, some of which can activate the innate immune system might also represent an approach to reduce the consequences of COVID-19 infection. It is also worth noting that galectin therapy also has the potential to reduce the severity of COVID-19 once infected.
NIH grants EY05093 and AI142862. “Microbes & Infection” has an impact factor 2,3. Published by Institute Pasteur.
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease either by natural infection or by vaccination, this provides indirect protection — or herd immunity — to those who are not immune to the disease.
A positive antibody response does not necessarily mean that there is immunity but nevertheless it may give a first indication how many individuals may have had contact with a virus. Be aware of several infodemic websites on seroprevalence. Also note that most information is distributed by news agencies, press offices and preprints only bypassing usual standards in science. Unfortunately also most tests have not been properly standardized.
| country | date | N | representative | antibody prevalence % | method | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan, China | 2Apr20 | 1.401 | no | 10 | ? | journal |
| Robbio, Italy | 6Apr20 | 2.000? | no? | 13.5 | ? | link to Ref 24 by Bendavid not working |
| Telluride, USA | 8Apr20 | 986 | ? | 0.8 | ? | newspaper |
| Santa Clara, USA | 17Apr20 | 3.330 | no (Facebook) | 1.5 | Premier Biotech, Minneapolis | medrxiv |
| Netherlands | 15Apr20 | 7.361 | no (plasma donors) | 3.1 | Wantai Biological Pharmacy | NIH |
| Los Angeles, USA | 20Ap20 | 863 | yes? | 4.1 | ? | press release |
| Trieste, Italy | 22Apr20 | 727 | no (clinic staff) | 17.2 | Wantai SARS-CoV-2 Ab Rapid Test | medrxiv |
| Brevard, USA | 24Apr20 | 1000 | no? | 1.0 | ? | newspaper |
| Miami, USA | 14Apr20 | 1.800 | yes | 4.4-7.9 | ? | press release |
| Scotland, GB | 17Apr20 | 1.000 | no (blood donors) | 1.0 | neutralisation assay | medrxiv |
| Chelsea, USA | 17Apr20 | 200 | no (passengers) | 32 | ? | newspaper via Science |
| New York, USA | 27Apr20 | 7.500? | ? | 15.0 | ? | newspaper |
| Denmark | 28Apr20 | 9,496 | no (blood donors) | 1.7 | Livzon Diagnostics IgM/IgG | medrxiv |
| Germany | May20 (weekly) | 1.342 | yes | 1.0 | ? | RKI |
| Iran | 1May20 | 551 | yes | 22 | VivaDiag COVID‐19 VivaCheck | medrxiv |
| Barcelona, Spain | 2May20 | 578 | no (healthcare worker) | 9.3 | Luminex / Krammer | medrxiv |
| Gangelt, Germany | 4May20 | 919 | no (hotspot) | 14.1 | Euroimmun? | UK Bonn |
| Padova, Italy | 1May20 | 133 | no (health care worker) | 5.3 | Chemiluminescence | medrxiv |
| San Miguel County, USA | 1May20 | 5.455 | ? | 0.5 | UB? | website |
| Philadelphia, USA | 9May20 | 237 | no (patients) | 5.9 | own ELISA / Florian Krammer | researchsquare |
| Boise, USA | 7May20 | 4.856 | no (self selected) | 1.8 | Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG | journal |
| Kobe, Japan | 5May20 | 1.000 | no (outpatients) | 3.3 | RC-NC002, KURABO | medrxiv |
| Wake Forest, USA | 8May20 | 676 | no (former patients) | 2.2 | ? | newspaper |
| Lausanne, Schweiz | 6May20 (weekly) | 1.335 | yes | 3.1, 6.1, 9.7 | Euroimmun | medrxiv |
| Brazil | 10May20 | 4.188 | yes | 0.05, 0.13 | Wondfo Biotech | medrxiv<7a> |
| Singapore | 12May20 | 32.000 | no (workers in dorms) | ? | ? | newspaper |
| Berlin, Germany | 13May20 | 5.000 / 7.500 | no (Charité staff) | 2.3, 0.3 | ? | Ärzteblatt |
| Spain | 15May20 | 60.000 | yes (?) | 5.0 | ? | Reuters |
| Cambridge, UK | 15May20 | 1.032 | no (health care worker) | 3.0 | own protocol | medrxiv |
| Hannover, Germany | 18May20 | 217 | no (health care worker) | 1.0 | Euroimmun | medrxiv |
| Stockhom, Sweden | 19May20 | 1.104 | yes? | 7.3 | ? | newspaper |
| Birmingham, UK | 22May20 | 554 | no (health care worker= | 24.4 | high-sensitivity ELISA developed in-house | medrxiv |
There is preprint that lists some studies that I could not locate so far.
Prevalences should NOT be compared for methodological reasons.
No idea from where the NYT data originate.